The Myth of Using FOREX Currency Trading Indicators
Hi, I'm Peter Rose, Founder of Longwood Currency Trading, and welcome to LCT Blog Post 04/16/20 — The Myth of Using FOREX Currency Trading Indicators.
Trading indicators are things like RSI, Fib levels, MACAD, etc. Trading resources focus on them as guides as to what price may do next, with heavy emphasis on the 'may'.
I qualify that 'may' because all indicators — all — represent what price has done in the past. No 'indicator' can predict future price movement.
An astute trader can use some of the available indicators to create a probabilistic assumption of what price may do, but that's all it is: a probabilistic calculation.
That being the case, from a scientific standpoint — from someone who has a B.S. in Physics and a lot of mathematics — the reality is that you can not predict through probabilistic calculations what a specific element will or could do, but rather only the probability of what the entire system of those elements might do.
In addition: probabilistic calculations against market data are not the same as making those same types of calculations, for example, against the movement of particulate in a fluid, called Brownian Motion. This is the biggest issue with market 'indicator' use.
You simply can't make the assumptions that non-scientists who trade, or want to trade, make as to how these calculations against indicators are made or used. That's the biggest issue, and one that is not discussed anywhere because the topic really is so complex that without years of mind squeezing mathematics it would be just incomprehensible gibberish.
But there is another, equally compelling reason not to use indicators. The following are a couple of sections taken from an online advanced trading training course I'm currently developing.
Thanks for taking your time to read this post,
peter
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Longwood Currency Trading is not an investment advisor and is not registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. Further, owners, employees, agents or representatives of the Longwood Currency Trading are not acting as investment advisors and might not be registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or the Financial Industry Regulatory.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.